Nifty view for the first day of Feb 2014 series

The Nifty index gaped down, below the support at 6100 and broke through 6050 to make a low of 6027.25. It made a stunning 60 point up move (in the last 45 minutes - Expiry) to close at 6073.70. This resulted in a classic "Hammer" candlestick on the daily candlestick chart. But still the trend is down.

The bulls will try to climb to 6130 but faces stiff resistance in the 6100 - 6120 band. Weekly closing above 6130 will be a momentary victory for the bulls - in that the range of 6130 - 6350 is not violated on a weekly closing basis (indicated on 26th Jan, Sunday).

As the trend is still down any break of 6050 - 6040 will bring into picture 6000, 5972 (our outer downside target for the week) and 5950.

Sell on Rise near resistance level with stiff Stops would be a better trading strategy.

Disclaimer: Views expressed though Technical in nature are bound to change dynamically duringmarket hours on dominant crowd behaviour. Loss of Capital is substantial in Derivatives / Indextrading.

Nifty views for 30th Jan 2014 (Jan Expiry)

The Index gaped up but could not sustain above 6150. The fact that even a feeble relief rally was not on tells us that the market participants are not willing to put any risk on trade before the FOMC (US Fed) outcome. The Index just held on to the Fibonacci support of 6110 (day's low was 6109.8) indicated yesterday, at least for the day.

For tomorrow (30th Jan), again 6110 - 6100 is the support, breaking which the index can slide to 6060 - 6050. If the Fed outcome is more than the already discounted figure we may see 5972 (our outside target for week envisaged on Sunday, 26th Jan). Expiry will add volatility and could arrest major slide.

Any up move has 6160, 6190- 6200 - 6220 as resistance.

Disclaimer: Views expressed though Technical in nature are bound to change dynamically during market hours on dominant crowd behaviour. Loss of Capital is substantial in Derivatives / Indextrading.

Nifty views for 29th Jan 2014

Nifty breached 6129 (as suggested yesterday) and made a low of 6085.95 and closed at 6126.25 a near "Doji" at a crucial support. The Short Term Trend is down but the Index has a Fibonacci support @ 6110, then the 6060 - 6050 band.

Any relief rally above 6150 will face strong resistance around 6200 and 6220.

Disclaimer: Views expressed though Technical in nature are bound to change dynamically during market hours on dominant crowd behaviour. Loss of Capital is substantial in Derivatives / Indextrading.

Nifty views for 28th Jan 2014

As indicated yesterday the Index declined to 6130.25 and closed at 6135.85. Looking at the ferocity of the fall the Support at 6129 may not hold. But a Support is a Support till it is broken. The Index might slide to 6060 levels if it conclusively breaks 6129 and 6100. Outside target for the down move is 5972.

If the support at 6129 holds the Index might attempt to scale 6200 and 6220. The probability of move above 6220 looks bleak unless the predictably "unpredictable" RBI Governor springs a positive surprise.

Disclaimer: Views expressed though Technical in nature are bound to change dynamically during market hours on dominant crowd behaviour. Loss of Capital is substantial in Derivatives / Index trading.

Index Outlook for the last week of Jan 2014.

The Nifty Index has been range bound for quite a while between 6130 - 6350 after making a life time high of 6415.25.

Heavy selling on Friday has resulted in a "Shooting Star" formation on the weekly charts. The Index might decline to the lower end of the range early next week. Any break below 6129, will increase the probability of the Index heading towards the swing low of 5972.

Any up move will face strong resistance at 6400. Move above 6400, will result in new life time highs, the chances of which look remote next week.   

The RBI meet on 28th and US Fed meet on 28th & 29th monetary policy will have major bearing on the Index next week. The quantum of tapering by the Fed will add spice to expiry. Caution is advised.

Disclaimer: Views expressed though Technical in nature are bound to change dynamically during market hours on dominant crowd behaviour. Loss of Capital is substantial in Derivatives / Index trading.

Nifty view for 24th Jan 2014

Well, Technicals and Levels don't change much. Same old story (indicated on 21st Jan). Resistance zone is 6346 - 6362. The Index is yet to close above 6346 - today's close 6345.65. The only positive is the Index is inching up and not giving away. The market needs a trigger (or execuse) to break-out or break-down.

A break above 6362 - 78 is needed, for the eventual dash to 6415 / 6420. The only change is tightening of trailing stop. Now 6320 - 6300 is the stop for long (for tomo).

Disclaimer: Views expressed though Technical in nature are bound to change dynamically during market hours on dominant crowd behaviour.  Loss of Capital is substantial in Index / Derivatives Trading.  

Nifty view for 23rd Jan 2014

The Index attempted the move up but could not close above 6346. The Index view remains the same as for 22nd Jan.

Disclaimer: Views expressed though Technical in nature are bound to change dynamically during market hours. Loss of Capital is substantial in Derivatives trading.  

Nifty views for 22nd Jan 2014

The Index - Nifty - faces strong resistance in the 6346 - 6362 band. If Nifty manages to get past this band, we might see 6415 and more in the days to come.

On the flip side break of 6300 and 6280 will see the Index declining to 6230 then 6200. With Bank Nifty showing signs of breakout on the upside, the possibility of the first scenario playing out is more.