Index view for the D day

As indicated on Tuesday, 7172.35 is still the top. The Index will be volatile tomorrow being the General Elections 2014 Result day. Let us see the scenarios to get some probable course the Index might take.

Scenario 1: NDA gets a thumping mandate with more than 300 seats.

The Nifty will easily scale 7229 and will attempt 7450 the extended Elliott Wave targets from the 5118 lows.

Scenario 2: NDA gets around 272 - 280 enough to form the Govt.
The Nifty will scale 7229 and might hold at least for the day.

Scenario 3: NDA gets around 220 - 200 and the "Alternative Front" emerges.
This will deflate the ongoing Modi rally and the very mention of "Alternative Front" or "Third Front" with the Bengal 'Tiger' (Mamata) or the Tamil Nadu 'Lady' (Jayalalithaa) being in lead roles, the Index might well hit 10% down circuit. In that case 6500 or 6400 is very much on.

A trading range of nearly 1000 points - 7450 to 6400 for a day. Very exciting and also spine chilling... Welcome "16th May 2014"...    


 

Shooting Star at New Life High for Nifty

Well, sorry I have been inconsistent for long. Hope to change for the better.

Nifty Index hit new Life High at 7172.35 but closed at 7108.75, thereby forming a classical "Shooting Star". The trend is very bullish but the Shooting Star is a warning signal. If the Index gaps down tomorrow and closes below it will be an Evening Star as well.

The Index may have formed a top at least for 2 days. If the actual General Election 2014 results on 16th May goes the exit polls way, the Index may even move higher, else 7172.35 could well be a short term top.

For the week, on the downside 7020 and 6940 are good supports. Any move below 6800 would see a sharp slide towards 6700 and even 6550.