Sunday 21 September 2014

Index view for September Expiry week

Last week Nifty declined to 7925 before reversing sharply to come within striking distance of the all time high mark of 8180.20. The Index closed at 8121.45 for the week.

Friday's price action looks like a Shooting Star, though its tail is more than normal in length. The weekly Candlestick is a near perfect Hanging Man. Though the market is in a clear uptrend, these Candlestick patterns suggest 'Caution' if not Bearish sentiment.

For the expiry week, if Nifty were scale past 8180, the targets are 8214 - 8237. Move beyond this zone will have 8305 and an outer target of even 8450 (looks unlikely at this stage though).

On the flip side any breach of 8070 will make the Index slide to 8000, 7940 -25 & 7833. The outer downside target can be as low as 7740.

Very small negative divergence is visible in the weekly momentum indicators. Caution advised on Longs.

The Bank Nifty Index Candlestick patterns also suggest a near top. On the daily charts a near perfect Hanging Man after a long white candle is not a good sign for the Bulls. We have a Weekly Doji at the top. Doji's at the top are valued for calling market tops. Also negative divergence in the weekly indicators cannot be ignored even in a clear uptrend. Hence caution is advised on longs.

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